Economic Outlook: Investing in a More Productive Economy

Inflation is now at or near target in major economies and interest rates are trending downward. However, the economic outlook is clouded by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the impacts of the policies of a new U.S. administration, and fragmentation of global trade. The baseline scenario is one of modest growth, but there are risks, and thus a wide dispersion of plausible outcomes. Over the medium term, one task is overriding for Canada: correcting a trend of low—and even negative—productivity growth. This is essential to improve standards of living while bolstering national and economic security, transitioning to a lower carbon economy and strengthening our social institutions and services. Succeeding in this task requires driving investment and innovation where the returns are greatest and seizing opportunities to grow high productivity activities.

With opening remarks from Senior Advisor David Dodge, this presentation of the 2025 Economic Outlook will feature Senior Advisor Serge Dupont and Paul Beaudry, Professor of Economics at the University of British Columbia, as they review near-term projections for output, inflation and interest rates in Canada and the United States. They will address challenges such as geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics that add uncertainty to economic outcomes. For Canada, they will emphasize the need to address low productivity growth to support living standards, economic security and the shift toward a low-carbon economy. Moderated by Claire Kennedy, the presentation and Q&A will provide valuable insights to help navigate the current economic landscape.

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